Poor polling sees Hay facing defeat
Illawarra Mercury
Thursday March 24, 2011
SHE rode a wave of Labor euphoria in the Illawarra all the way to Macquarie St at the past two elections; however, recent polling suggests Noreen Hay's reign in Wollongong may come to an end on Saturday.Tipped to unseat the incumbent is independent candidate Gordon Bradbery, who officially entered the political race in January, despite almost 12 months of speculation surrounding his bid.Comparison of two Mercury-IRIS polls taken two weeks apart, the most recent reported last Saturday, shows Ms Hay's primary vote hovering around 35 per cent in both results, while Mr Bradbery's support rose from 23 per cent to 32 per cent between polls.Liberal Michelle Blicavs is trailing both candidates with 18 per cent, down on her first poll result of 24 per cent.But the real danger for Ms Hay comes in the two-party preferred votes, which if replicated on Saturday, would see the incumbent defeated 46 per cent to Mr Bradbery's 54 per cent.If Mr Bradbery is successful, his new career will be a significant turnaround from his role as a Uniting Church minister at Wollongong's Church on the Mall for the past 15 years.Mr Bradbery's task all along has been to turn his high public profile and community standing into cold, hard votes since rumours first emerged in February last year that he was considering running.Poll results would suggest he has been relatively successful in that challenge; however, Saturday's results will ultimately decide if he has proved his political mettle.Support for vocal Greens candidate Brendan Cook fell between the two polls, despite the 23-year-old being possibly the most vocal of the party's candidates across the region.Other candidates vying for votes are Christian Democrat Clarrie Pratt and independent Jimmy Clabour.While predicting a winner may be almost impossible, one thing is certain - the fight for Wollongong will go down to the wire.AT A GLANCE Sitting member: Noreen Hay, Labor (elected 2003)Boundaries: Fairy Meadow to Lake Illawarra including Mt Kembla, Unanderra, Berkeley, Cringila, Port Kembla.Enrolled voters: 50,4902007 result on two-party preferred votes: Labor 75.28%, Liberal 24.72%Margin: 25%Previous member: Colin Markham, Labor, 1999-2003.
© 2011 Illawarra Mercury
